 |
I don’t really care who runs against Big Brown in the Preakness, if in fact Big Brown will go in the Preakness. To come back in 14 days and run a similar race will be the biggest task asked of this lightly-raced, podiatric-challenged son of Boundary.
The Derby win was phenomenal, and no one will ever take that away from him, as much as some may try complaining that the field was weak (we won’t truly know this for at least a year). Derby also-rans are immediately scrutinized based on this one performance and nothing could be more foolish. Our society of quick hitting media in need of an instantaneous reaction is a foolish one.
I question whether or not Big Brown will actually run in the Preakness. I’m convinced the IEAH ownership wants to go but not so convinced trainer Richard Dutrow wants to. After a well-annotated history of quarter cracks, three races which earned him Beyer Speed Figures of 105, 105, and 109 (Derby), a wide trip in the Derby that forced him to cover more ground than the listed 10 furlongs, and a less than full plate of foundational prep races leaves Big Brown incredibly vulnerable to come back in such a short time.
As it stands now, I’m backing Kentucky Bear in the Preakness – lock, stock, and two smoking barrels behind the Reade Baker-trainee. Big Brown or no Big Brown. Decision made. We can talk Preakness logic later.
If Big Brown runs well or wins the Preakness – good for him and good for racing. I’m simply offering that a Preakness win from Big Brown would require him to perform in such a manner that is so against his past history and the traditional form of a race horse who has had three strong performances off of a long layoff. I wish nothing but the best for all involved yet have serious doubts about another dominant performance for the Derby winner if he comes back in two weeks.
Contact Pat Cummings at pcummings@racingdispatch.com
9 Comments
Add this link to...
Tell a friend
Bury
The Derby win was phenomenal, and no one will ever take that away from him, as much as some may try complaining that the field was weak (we won’t truly know this for at least a year). Derby also-rans are immediately scrutinized based on this one performance and nothing could be more foolish. Our society of quick hitting media in need of an instantaneous reaction is a foolish one.
I question whether or not Big Brown will actually run in the Preakness. I’m convinced the IEAH ownership wants to go but not so convinced trainer Richard Dutrow wants to. After a well-annotated history of quarter cracks, three races which earned him Beyer Speed Figures of 105, 105, and 109 (Derby), a wide trip in the Derby that forced him to cover more ground than the listed 10 furlongs, and a less than full plate of foundational prep races leaves Big Brown incredibly vulnerable to come back in such a short time.
As it stands now, I’m backing Kentucky Bear in the Preakness – lock, stock, and two smoking barrels behind the Reade Baker-trainee. Big Brown or no Big Brown. Decision made. We can talk Preakness logic later.
If Big Brown runs well or wins the Preakness – good for him and good for racing. I’m simply offering that a Preakness win from Big Brown would require him to perform in such a manner that is so against his past history and the traditional form of a race horse who has had three strong performances off of a long layoff. I wish nothing but the best for all involved yet have serious doubts about another dominant performance for the Derby winner if he comes back in two weeks.
Contact Pat Cummings at pcummings@racingdispatch.com
9 Comments
Add this link to...
Tell a friend
Bury
Comments
Are you joking?
No. Any chance you can explain why disagree?
What doesn't make sense is NOT going in the Preakness...
Does anyone have the guts to tackle this statement on its merits and not its emotion? Travis? Heck, even Dutrow's worried.
Pat,
If what you say is correct, there will never be a greater indictment of the Thoroughbred breed of the 21st Century.
Think back to Secretariat's Triple Crown races, each astonishing, and arguably better than the previous.
Think back to Seattle Slew, who got stronger through the series.
Think back to Affirmed and Alydar, each maintaining sensational form throughout.
Now, Big Brown isn't one of those, but if he can't come back in the Preakness after going 5 weeks between the Florida and Kentucky Derbys, then we might as well switch to racing goats right now.
Any horse can lose any race, but at the moment, there are no three-year-olds who can sniff Big Brown's backside. Could his feet go south? Of course. But barring that or other ailment, there is no reason he should not run.
Could there be an ailment brewing? Perhaps. I'm still not convinced the bandages were just insurance.
I'm not even sure an ailment is brewing - but I am certain that this horse is well-known to be sensitive. Dutrow knows it and is really hedging his excitement about going to the Preakness. I don't think it indicts the breed, just respects a horse who is very sensitive. Given this past sensitivity, I think the horse might be best served skipping the race.
If he wins by three in a workout (which frankly, could happen) - I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong.
Find me one trainer who would not be hesitant to run back in two weeks off the Derby, and then we can discuss the bridge I have for sale downtown.
Not this quote from Dutrow, "Now things start to change...but I still like our chances because I think we have the best horse."
If there is no physical reason not to run the horse, I can't imagine how they could not run him. I'm not even a fan of the horse (trainer) but the performance Big Brown gave in the Derby makes a run at the Triple Crown almost mandatory.
Unless somebody really steps up, running in the Preakness would not need to be any more than a workout. I always have believed that anytime a horse seems to be unbeatable, play against him on principle, but I don't see any of the potential new shooters as being better than the bulk of the field he drowned.
Usually there's a horse with an excuse or someone you can make a case for in the Preakness, but I'm still looking.
If there IS something not right with the animal, however, keep him in the barn. Please.
Save this point of view for the Belmont, that is where they usually get beat.