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For the next 17 weekends we’re going to focus on two stakes races each Saturday as part of the Dispatch Summer Stakes Series. This Saturday’s races are the $200,000 Peter Pan (G2) from Belmont Park and the $400,000 Lone Star Derby (G3) from Lone Star Park.
The $400,000 Lone Star Derby (G3)
8.5 Furlongs
Post Time: 6:47 PM EDT
1. Limestone Edge-
Bob Hess trainee is coming in here off a solid N1X win over the Polytrack at Keeneland, so he’s a bit of an unknown quantity on conventional dirt. He benefited from a perfect trip in the win last time out and even though his quick workout under the Twin Spires would say he’ll be fine on the “real” stuff, we’re inclined to pass.
1A. Samba Rooster-
This guy is the half of the entry they’ll be betting and for good reason given his early foot. He rocketed out of the gate in the Lexington and nearly scored in a “catch me if you can” bid. The half-mile he ran on the Polytrack would dictate he can go :44 and change here and the addition of blinkers should have him really blazing in the early stages. Hopefully Gomez can keep something in the tank, as this guy’s stride has shortened in the stretch noticeably in his last two. The deserving favorite, even with his faults.
2. El Gato Malo-
Son of El Corredor was right in the thick of the Derby Trail six weeks ago as he was the 9/5 fave in the SA Derby. A poor effort that day and a lack of graded earnings kept him from going to Louisville and this is really a much better spot. He’s another unknown on conventional dirt and he doesn’t even have a workout over a non-synthetic surface. We’ve all seen his late kick and you can be sure the pace setup will be perfect for him, but I’d demand value before taking the plunge.
3. Golden Yank-
After a solid third in the Jackpot this guy was on many people’s lists of sleepers with a chance coming into ’08. He didn’t get back to the track until March and was subsequently dull in two tries at Oaklawn. The Hot Springs oval is a tad quirky and some horses just don’t care for it. Since the Ark Derby debacle this guy has posted a good workout at Lone Star followed by two slow breezes, he’s getting the best jockey on the grounds and is making the third start of his form cycle. Surprise package.
4. Poni Colada-
The good race, bad race pattern continued for this guy in the Northern Spur last time where he narrowly missed after rallying well. That was a lifetime top for him and he seems due for a regression. His trainer clearly excels at this racetrack and it’s always dangerous to throw out one of his charges in a stakes race but I’m not high on this guy’s chances.
5. King’s Silver Son-
The “other” Asmussen was in a different zip code at the mid-point of the Arkansas Derby and wound up making no impact. They’re going to go rearlly quick early and this guy has zero early foot, so I’d be concerned that he doesn’t fall 20 lengths out but once his motor gets going he can be a major factor. Know him in the late stages.
6. Texas Wildcatter-
Gotham runner-up was due for a regression in the Wood and it happened in a big way as he beat only one horse. We’ve seen him do his best work on wet tracks and the forecast is dry in the greater Dallas area this weekend. He is, however, one of the very few in here who has run consistently solid races against good competition at two turns and it doesn’t hurt to see Robby come in for the ride. Expect a big rebound from this guy.
7. Ide Like a Double-
Crescent City Derby hero ran an even third in the Northern Spur but unlike ‘Colada he was relatively close to the rapid early pace. He seems to be a new animal since the freshening and his last two have been awfully good. There are going to be a few in here who sit behind the runaway speedster and inherit a golden opportunity when he starts backing up and with that kind of trip this guy could make some noise.
8. Isabull-
Steve Hobby trainee made a middle move in the Ark Derby before flattening out and has really shown no indication in his last three starts of being a stakes competitor. Tough to figure out exactly what his style is as he’s been close to the pace and off the pace in good performances in the past. Either way, I think he has very little impact in here.
9. Leonides-
The other California raider will be stretching out for the first time and already has one win in one try on conventional dirt. His trainer doesn’t ship them outside of the Golden State very often but to give this guy a shot against graded stakes competitors like these, I can’t blame him. He’s chosen a very heady rider in the ‘Mig and Lone Star has long been a track that’s very kind to sprinters stretching out. A definite win candidate.
10. My Pal Charlie-
Tough to say whether his runner-up finish in the La Derby was that great a performance as we’re seeing two months later that it was a very poor race. He paired up his FG Beyer in the Ark Derby but lost ground steadily through the stretch. His stalking style plays well with ‘Samba clicking the early splits but I think we’ve seen this guy’s best and it’s not enough to make me a believer.
11. Fort Apache-
This son of Mineshaft broke his maiden last time out in an allowance race over this track last time out. His trainer is among the heavy hitters at LSP and he’s due to get another great pace setup. If you find yourself feeling like class is relative in a race like this then give this guy a shot at a gigantic price.
12. Real Appeal-
Like a few others he flopped in the Illinois Derby and was due to bounce off a hard race on the Brazos River sand at Sam Houston. His trainer has chosen this spot and is getting his jockey to fly in for the ride. He is yet another who will get a great pace setup but a wide trip is likely with his post position. All in all, you may get 30-1 on a 30% trainer, with a jockey on board who wins 1 out of 4 riding for him, on a stakes winner. Food for thought.
The $200,000 Peter Pan (G2)
9.0 Furlongs
Post Time: 5:15 PM EDT
1. Casino Drive-
Tough to really get a handle on what this guy’s capable of as his first start was excellent from all accounts, he’s obviously bred to handle any distance and his lone work stateside was very fast. His connections thought enough of him to nominate him to the Triple Crown and it is likely that their plan has played out perfectly thus far. With so many unknowns you must demand value but recognize that allowing this guy or his entrymate to knock you out of a multi-race bet is a bad idea.
1A. Spark Candle-
The “other” half of the entry has a very impressive pedigree, but like a couple of Serena’s Song’s progeny, he hasn’t been too sharp on the track. He worked considerably slower than his stablemate and will be wearing blinkers, so there are obviously some underlying problems with this guy. The bright side is that you get Casino Drive if you somehow like his ‘Candle’s chance.
2. Tomcito-
All of the hype on this guy really looks like much ado about nothing as his late “bid” in the Florida Derby was nothing more than him passing a few horses who were in reverse. He couldn’t get his motor cranked up in the Lexington and the story we’re getting is that eight and a half panels is not his game. He’s on his way to the Belmont, which seems to be at a distance that hits him right between the eyes, so tab him then.
3. Mint Lane-
The probable pacesetter is coming off a solid effort in the Federico Tesio where he led for approximately 97% of the race before getting nailed in the last jump. There has to be some level of concern that you’re asking him to run a top career figure for the third consecutive time if you plunk down your dollars. With a couple in here to keep him company early and based on the fact that he’s really only a wire to wire candidate when he can slow it down, he is a bad play at less than 10-1.
4. Deputyville-
A certain longshot in here, this Contessa trainee was beaten by Mint Lane by three lengths in the Tesio. He was all over the track that day before throwing together a decent late bid. He finished a respectable fifth in the WinStar Derby before joining Contessa and we all know how quickly Contessa/Winning Move runners improve when they wear the orange. Give him a longshot chance as an exotics filler.
5. Golden Spikes-
This guy is set to get a ton of support from the public based on his second place finish in the Illinois Derby to Recapturetheglory. The truth is he had a perfect trip that day and still found a way to lose ground in the stretch for the third consecutive time. Despite a nifty pedigree he is making it clear time and again that a mile and a furlong is out of his range. With Prado jumping on there is going to be a ton of “wiseguy” money landing here, so move on and welcome the value you’ll get elsewhere.
6. Ready’s Echo-
This guy was the cause of a great amount of hysteria over a debut race that ended in defeat when he closed from 25 lengths out to run second at 5 and a half panels. He came back after being laid up and has looked good this year, breaking his maiden at Gulfstream and then narrowly missing in an allowance heat at Keeneland. He is crying out for more ground and he gets it here and with a solid pace likely, his late kick will be formidable. The pick in the Peter Pan.
7. Cosmic-
You always have to heed a Shug McGaughey trainee who’s progressing nicely and this guy seems to be figuring the game out with each start. He beat a N1X field at the Big A a couple of weeks ago and was still very green in the stretch. His pedigree dictates that he’ll be OK with running all day and he’s another who will benefit from a good early pace. A certain win candidate.
8. Fast Talking-
Perhaps the biggest wildcard in this field is what type of role this guy will play in the early going. He was strangled last time and wound up fighting with the rider, so there’s a good chance Alan Garcia will just let him go. That will not only hurt Mint Lane’s chances but will also greatly aid the late runners. From a wagering standpoint, he’s a non-entity.
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The $400,000 Lone Star Derby (G3)
8.5 Furlongs
Post Time: 6:47 PM EDT
1. Limestone Edge-
Bob Hess trainee is coming in here off a solid N1X win over the Polytrack at Keeneland, so he’s a bit of an unknown quantity on conventional dirt. He benefited from a perfect trip in the win last time out and even though his quick workout under the Twin Spires would say he’ll be fine on the “real” stuff, we’re inclined to pass.
1A. Samba Rooster-
This guy is the half of the entry they’ll be betting and for good reason given his early foot. He rocketed out of the gate in the Lexington and nearly scored in a “catch me if you can” bid. The half-mile he ran on the Polytrack would dictate he can go :44 and change here and the addition of blinkers should have him really blazing in the early stages. Hopefully Gomez can keep something in the tank, as this guy’s stride has shortened in the stretch noticeably in his last two. The deserving favorite, even with his faults.
2. El Gato Malo-
Son of El Corredor was right in the thick of the Derby Trail six weeks ago as he was the 9/5 fave in the SA Derby. A poor effort that day and a lack of graded earnings kept him from going to Louisville and this is really a much better spot. He’s another unknown on conventional dirt and he doesn’t even have a workout over a non-synthetic surface. We’ve all seen his late kick and you can be sure the pace setup will be perfect for him, but I’d demand value before taking the plunge.
3. Golden Yank-
After a solid third in the Jackpot this guy was on many people’s lists of sleepers with a chance coming into ’08. He didn’t get back to the track until March and was subsequently dull in two tries at Oaklawn. The Hot Springs oval is a tad quirky and some horses just don’t care for it. Since the Ark Derby debacle this guy has posted a good workout at Lone Star followed by two slow breezes, he’s getting the best jockey on the grounds and is making the third start of his form cycle. Surprise package.
4. Poni Colada-
The good race, bad race pattern continued for this guy in the Northern Spur last time where he narrowly missed after rallying well. That was a lifetime top for him and he seems due for a regression. His trainer clearly excels at this racetrack and it’s always dangerous to throw out one of his charges in a stakes race but I’m not high on this guy’s chances.
5. King’s Silver Son-
The “other” Asmussen was in a different zip code at the mid-point of the Arkansas Derby and wound up making no impact. They’re going to go rearlly quick early and this guy has zero early foot, so I’d be concerned that he doesn’t fall 20 lengths out but once his motor gets going he can be a major factor. Know him in the late stages.
6. Texas Wildcatter-
Gotham runner-up was due for a regression in the Wood and it happened in a big way as he beat only one horse. We’ve seen him do his best work on wet tracks and the forecast is dry in the greater Dallas area this weekend. He is, however, one of the very few in here who has run consistently solid races against good competition at two turns and it doesn’t hurt to see Robby come in for the ride. Expect a big rebound from this guy.
7. Ide Like a Double-
Crescent City Derby hero ran an even third in the Northern Spur but unlike ‘Colada he was relatively close to the rapid early pace. He seems to be a new animal since the freshening and his last two have been awfully good. There are going to be a few in here who sit behind the runaway speedster and inherit a golden opportunity when he starts backing up and with that kind of trip this guy could make some noise.
8. Isabull-
Steve Hobby trainee made a middle move in the Ark Derby before flattening out and has really shown no indication in his last three starts of being a stakes competitor. Tough to figure out exactly what his style is as he’s been close to the pace and off the pace in good performances in the past. Either way, I think he has very little impact in here.
9. Leonides-
The other California raider will be stretching out for the first time and already has one win in one try on conventional dirt. His trainer doesn’t ship them outside of the Golden State very often but to give this guy a shot against graded stakes competitors like these, I can’t blame him. He’s chosen a very heady rider in the ‘Mig and Lone Star has long been a track that’s very kind to sprinters stretching out. A definite win candidate.
10. My Pal Charlie-
Tough to say whether his runner-up finish in the La Derby was that great a performance as we’re seeing two months later that it was a very poor race. He paired up his FG Beyer in the Ark Derby but lost ground steadily through the stretch. His stalking style plays well with ‘Samba clicking the early splits but I think we’ve seen this guy’s best and it’s not enough to make me a believer.
11. Fort Apache-
This son of Mineshaft broke his maiden last time out in an allowance race over this track last time out. His trainer is among the heavy hitters at LSP and he’s due to get another great pace setup. If you find yourself feeling like class is relative in a race like this then give this guy a shot at a gigantic price.
12. Real Appeal-
Like a few others he flopped in the Illinois Derby and was due to bounce off a hard race on the Brazos River sand at Sam Houston. His trainer has chosen this spot and is getting his jockey to fly in for the ride. He is yet another who will get a great pace setup but a wide trip is likely with his post position. All in all, you may get 30-1 on a 30% trainer, with a jockey on board who wins 1 out of 4 riding for him, on a stakes winner. Food for thought.
The $200,000 Peter Pan (G2)
9.0 Furlongs
Post Time: 5:15 PM EDT
1. Casino Drive-
Tough to really get a handle on what this guy’s capable of as his first start was excellent from all accounts, he’s obviously bred to handle any distance and his lone work stateside was very fast. His connections thought enough of him to nominate him to the Triple Crown and it is likely that their plan has played out perfectly thus far. With so many unknowns you must demand value but recognize that allowing this guy or his entrymate to knock you out of a multi-race bet is a bad idea.
1A. Spark Candle-
The “other” half of the entry has a very impressive pedigree, but like a couple of Serena’s Song’s progeny, he hasn’t been too sharp on the track. He worked considerably slower than his stablemate and will be wearing blinkers, so there are obviously some underlying problems with this guy. The bright side is that you get Casino Drive if you somehow like his ‘Candle’s chance.
2. Tomcito-
All of the hype on this guy really looks like much ado about nothing as his late “bid” in the Florida Derby was nothing more than him passing a few horses who were in reverse. He couldn’t get his motor cranked up in the Lexington and the story we’re getting is that eight and a half panels is not his game. He’s on his way to the Belmont, which seems to be at a distance that hits him right between the eyes, so tab him then.
3. Mint Lane-
The probable pacesetter is coming off a solid effort in the Federico Tesio where he led for approximately 97% of the race before getting nailed in the last jump. There has to be some level of concern that you’re asking him to run a top career figure for the third consecutive time if you plunk down your dollars. With a couple in here to keep him company early and based on the fact that he’s really only a wire to wire candidate when he can slow it down, he is a bad play at less than 10-1.
4. Deputyville-
A certain longshot in here, this Contessa trainee was beaten by Mint Lane by three lengths in the Tesio. He was all over the track that day before throwing together a decent late bid. He finished a respectable fifth in the WinStar Derby before joining Contessa and we all know how quickly Contessa/Winning Move runners improve when they wear the orange. Give him a longshot chance as an exotics filler.
5. Golden Spikes-
This guy is set to get a ton of support from the public based on his second place finish in the Illinois Derby to Recapturetheglory. The truth is he had a perfect trip that day and still found a way to lose ground in the stretch for the third consecutive time. Despite a nifty pedigree he is making it clear time and again that a mile and a furlong is out of his range. With Prado jumping on there is going to be a ton of “wiseguy” money landing here, so move on and welcome the value you’ll get elsewhere.
6. Ready’s Echo-
This guy was the cause of a great amount of hysteria over a debut race that ended in defeat when he closed from 25 lengths out to run second at 5 and a half panels. He came back after being laid up and has looked good this year, breaking his maiden at Gulfstream and then narrowly missing in an allowance heat at Keeneland. He is crying out for more ground and he gets it here and with a solid pace likely, his late kick will be formidable. The pick in the Peter Pan.
7. Cosmic-
You always have to heed a Shug McGaughey trainee who’s progressing nicely and this guy seems to be figuring the game out with each start. He beat a N1X field at the Big A a couple of weeks ago and was still very green in the stretch. His pedigree dictates that he’ll be OK with running all day and he’s another who will benefit from a good early pace. A certain win candidate.
8. Fast Talking-
Perhaps the biggest wildcard in this field is what type of role this guy will play in the early going. He was strangled last time and wound up fighting with the rider, so there’s a good chance Alan Garcia will just let him go. That will not only hurt Mint Lane’s chances but will also greatly aid the late runners. From a wagering standpoint, he’s a non-entity.
Discuss
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Bury
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