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It’s Week 2 of the Dispatch Summer Stakes Series and the big day at Pimlico is here. The Preakness Stakes will be Race 12 on the 13 race program. We’ll also take a look at the $250,000 Dixie Handicap, which will go as Race 10.
The $250,000 Dixie (G2)
9.0 Furlongs (Turf)
Post Time: 4:25 PM EDT
1. Headsandtales-
Robin Graham trainee chugged up for third in the local prep but was really never a threat for the win. He is a stakes winner, but it came against Md. Breds at Laurel last year. He’s rather tractable, which will be an asset in a race that is seriously short on early foot, however, the bottom line is that he’s an outsider. A finish in the top four would be a surprise.
2. Distorted Reality-
This guy has a “wiseguy” feel to him as he knocked on the door all of last year and looked good in his first start back in ’08. What he beat in his last race at Aqueduct can be seriously questioned as the runner-up was trying turf for the first time and the 3rd place finisher was a non-threatening third against NY breds last Sunday. While you can be certain he’ll be fitter for this effort and should be close to the projected slow early pace, you’re also playing with fire if you take less than 6-1 on this guy.
3. Buffalo Man-
Cam Gambolati trainee is moving back to the turf after a sneaky good race in the Commonwealth last time out. He made a big middle move that day while on the rail the entire time and the inner paths at Keeneland during the meet were very deep and hard to negotiate. He prefers to go longer and is doing so here, in a race where there is very little early speed. Look for Prado to get him towards the front early and be the one to catch when they face the stands.
4. Shakis-
This guy broke through when he won the Bernard Baruch on Travers day, flying through an opening on the rail en route to victory. His first start of 2008 was good, as he really stood little chance against the best turf horses in the country at a distance that is way too short for him. The worst news for his connections is that rains were set to dampen the Pimlico lawn all day on Friday and this guy has never cared for wet grass. The pace situation doesn’t really play into his hands at all either. Dicey.
5. Pays to Dream-
David Donk trainee came back off the bench in the Fort Marcy last time and was really never involved. He did grab third in the Saranac and Jamaica last year but really doesn’t look like a graded stakes horse. He’s yet another who will lag well behind the early pace and that’s a dangerous style to have in this paceless affair. He’ll reward his backers with a big mutuel, but I will not be among them.
6. Stay Close-
Clearly the hottest participant in the race, this guy has already scored twice in 2008 and once at this meet in the Henry Clark. A Clark-Dixie double is not unheard of as it was the route for Mr. O’Brien four years ago. This guy doesn’t need a particular turf course to get the job done as he has been successful on good and yielding ovals, however he must deal with deeper waters here and the fact that he’ll have to duplicate a big performance from his last start.
7. Ra Der Dean-
A mid-Atlantic stalwart for years, this guy is coming in here with a rust shaker a couple of weeks ago at this track. He has never been successful against stakes company and while he’s not facing the toughest Dixie field ever, he is seriously up against it.
8. Salinja-
If Prado somehow feels more inclined to rate off the pace then this guy could find himself on the lead. He showed that he’s probably at his best when just behind the lead, like he was last time out at Keeneland. I think we’ve seen the ceiling from this guy and it looks like it’s good enough, though I’d go through significant deliberation before determining if he can finally run two big races in a row.
9. Pick Six-
This guy was scratched out of a much easier allowance race on Thursday at Belmont which goes to show you what Shug thinks of him. His trip was horrendous on Blue Grass day at Keeneland where he bobbled at the start, stumbled through the stretch the first time and then raced 4-5 wide all the way around the track. He was a great fit in that N2X but a G2? Not so much.
SELECTIONS:
1. BUFFALO MAN 2. SHAKIS 3. STAY CLOSE
The $1,000,000 Preakness (G1)
9.5 Furlongs
Post Time: 6:15 PM EDT
1. Macho Again-
Derby Trial winner is stretching out again and his first two starts around two-turns were not pretty. He is clearly a different animal on dirt than he in on Polytrack but before taking the plunge on him you must ask yourself what is different now than when he tried the Lecomte at Fair Grounds and was drilled? There also has to be some concern about regression off the big effort last time out.
2. Tres Borrachos-
Speedster should be winging right from the start under Tyler Baze and he has run two much improved races since moving to conventional dirt two starts ago. He battled back gamely for the show dough in the Arkansas Derby and he definitely has the pedigree to get 9.5 furlongs. However, do you really think he can beat out all the speed, get enough of a breather to stay clear into the stretch and STILL fight off ‘Brown? I thought so.
3. Icabad Crane-
This guy’s among the longshot plodders that could get up for third in here as he is still lightly raced, showed nice improvement last time out over this track, and is in the hands of an excellent horseman. His Beyers are awfully light but that’s really not much of a concern because beyond the top pick everyone’s Beyers are light.
4. Yankee Bravo-
Another Californian who is a multiple stakes winner and will be a ways off the early pace. His rider won this race over 20 years ago and has enjoyed a re-emergence in 2008 but there are so many red flags on this guy. He has no early speed, his lone conventional dirt start was slow and he was beaten by two horses who have been unable to hit the board in two subsequent starts. It’s not encouraging that he has no dirt workouts and that he had no punch in the ninth furlong of the SA Derby.
5. Behindatthebar-
SCRATCHED.
6. Racecar Rhapsody-
This guy was highly regarded coming into 2008 as he closed out his ’07 campaign with strong finishes at Churchill and Delta. What we found out is that he’s a big-time plodder who needs a pace meltdown to have any type of involvement in the outcome. He closed gamely last time at Keeneland, but can you get a better setup than a :45 and 1/5 half-mile on the Polytrack? He’ll have to move forward a ton to contend.
7. Big Brown-
What more can you say about the Derby winner? He’s brilliantly fast, has a terrific mixture of raw and tactical speed and he has looked invincible in four career starts. Is there some reason to be concerned he bounces? Sure but this field is nothing like the group that FuPeg faced eight years ago. There are very few legitimate stakes competitors here and five of the eleven rivals he’s facing still have their N1X allowance conditions. Look for him to be close to the early pace, take over turning for home and head to Belmont looking for the Crown.
8. Kentucky Bear-
Could very well be the horse with the best chance of upsetting the favorite as there are quite a few things to like about him. He’s very lightly raced and has shown a couple of times that he may have potential. What he gives up in seasoning he gains back in conditioning because he is now running his 2nd race off a layoff and is working beautifully in the morning. This year’s Red Bullet?
9. Stevil-
One of the five eligible for a N1X, this guy will get some support because of the “12 wide bid” comment from his Blue Grass effort when he was in truth never involved in the outcome. His Beyer figures are not impressive and he is nothing more than an outsider.
10. Riley Tucker-
This guy’s going back to conventional dirt after two tries on the Polytrack at Keeneland. From his past performances it looks like he prefers the fake stuff as his last try against stakes company on dirt was a distant sixth-place finish behind Denis of Cork in the Southwest. Well-bred son of Harlan’s Holiday has a future, it’s just not on the surface he’s running on today.
11. Giant Moon-
The pride of New York needs to get back to the form he held over the winter as his Count Fleet was a sharp effort for a young three year-old. He has been subpar in two starts since including a fourth-place finish in the Wood Memorial last time out. He worked sharply on Tuesday and is much more effective when he’s right in the mix early, so look for Ramon Dominguez to be very aggressive early. He’ll give his backers a thrill for a short while.
12. Gayego-
Arkansas Derby winner showed nothing in the Derby and was an 11th hour entrant into this race. If you think he is more likely to run back to his strong races earlier in the spring then take a chance as his price will be solid. I’m more inclined to think the Derby was a pre-cursor to a bad Triple Crown run for this son of Gilded Time. Look for him to be involved early as he’s adding blinkers but be nowhere when the running starts.
13. Hey Byrn-
This guy made a name for himself at Gulfstream with a productive winter. His only blemish was a distant foruth behind Big Brown in the Fla Derby where he ran into some trouble in the early stages and had a wide trip. He bounced back from the Fla Derby with a strong race on short rest in the Holy Bull but still must improve further to be more than a superfecta threat in here. That type of improvement does seem like a distinct possibility.
SELECTIONS:
1. Big Brown 2. Kentucky Bear 3. Hey Byrn
LAST WEEK:
The Peter Pan was won by Casino Drive in impressive fashion and the Lone Star Derby went to favored El Gato Malo.
NEXT WEEK:
The American 1000 Guineas from Arlington Park and the Sheepshead Bay (G2) from Belmont Park.
Discuss
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The $250,000 Dixie (G2)
9.0 Furlongs (Turf)
Post Time: 4:25 PM EDT
1. Headsandtales-
Robin Graham trainee chugged up for third in the local prep but was really never a threat for the win. He is a stakes winner, but it came against Md. Breds at Laurel last year. He’s rather tractable, which will be an asset in a race that is seriously short on early foot, however, the bottom line is that he’s an outsider. A finish in the top four would be a surprise.
2. Distorted Reality-
This guy has a “wiseguy” feel to him as he knocked on the door all of last year and looked good in his first start back in ’08. What he beat in his last race at Aqueduct can be seriously questioned as the runner-up was trying turf for the first time and the 3rd place finisher was a non-threatening third against NY breds last Sunday. While you can be certain he’ll be fitter for this effort and should be close to the projected slow early pace, you’re also playing with fire if you take less than 6-1 on this guy.
3. Buffalo Man-
Cam Gambolati trainee is moving back to the turf after a sneaky good race in the Commonwealth last time out. He made a big middle move that day while on the rail the entire time and the inner paths at Keeneland during the meet were very deep and hard to negotiate. He prefers to go longer and is doing so here, in a race where there is very little early speed. Look for Prado to get him towards the front early and be the one to catch when they face the stands.
4. Shakis-
This guy broke through when he won the Bernard Baruch on Travers day, flying through an opening on the rail en route to victory. His first start of 2008 was good, as he really stood little chance against the best turf horses in the country at a distance that is way too short for him. The worst news for his connections is that rains were set to dampen the Pimlico lawn all day on Friday and this guy has never cared for wet grass. The pace situation doesn’t really play into his hands at all either. Dicey.
5. Pays to Dream-
David Donk trainee came back off the bench in the Fort Marcy last time and was really never involved. He did grab third in the Saranac and Jamaica last year but really doesn’t look like a graded stakes horse. He’s yet another who will lag well behind the early pace and that’s a dangerous style to have in this paceless affair. He’ll reward his backers with a big mutuel, but I will not be among them.
6. Stay Close-
Clearly the hottest participant in the race, this guy has already scored twice in 2008 and once at this meet in the Henry Clark. A Clark-Dixie double is not unheard of as it was the route for Mr. O’Brien four years ago. This guy doesn’t need a particular turf course to get the job done as he has been successful on good and yielding ovals, however he must deal with deeper waters here and the fact that he’ll have to duplicate a big performance from his last start.
7. Ra Der Dean-
A mid-Atlantic stalwart for years, this guy is coming in here with a rust shaker a couple of weeks ago at this track. He has never been successful against stakes company and while he’s not facing the toughest Dixie field ever, he is seriously up against it.
8. Salinja-
If Prado somehow feels more inclined to rate off the pace then this guy could find himself on the lead. He showed that he’s probably at his best when just behind the lead, like he was last time out at Keeneland. I think we’ve seen the ceiling from this guy and it looks like it’s good enough, though I’d go through significant deliberation before determining if he can finally run two big races in a row.
9. Pick Six-
This guy was scratched out of a much easier allowance race on Thursday at Belmont which goes to show you what Shug thinks of him. His trip was horrendous on Blue Grass day at Keeneland where he bobbled at the start, stumbled through the stretch the first time and then raced 4-5 wide all the way around the track. He was a great fit in that N2X but a G2? Not so much.
SELECTIONS:
1. BUFFALO MAN 2. SHAKIS 3. STAY CLOSE
The $1,000,000 Preakness (G1)
9.5 Furlongs
Post Time: 6:15 PM EDT
1. Macho Again-
Derby Trial winner is stretching out again and his first two starts around two-turns were not pretty. He is clearly a different animal on dirt than he in on Polytrack but before taking the plunge on him you must ask yourself what is different now than when he tried the Lecomte at Fair Grounds and was drilled? There also has to be some concern about regression off the big effort last time out.
2. Tres Borrachos-
Speedster should be winging right from the start under Tyler Baze and he has run two much improved races since moving to conventional dirt two starts ago. He battled back gamely for the show dough in the Arkansas Derby and he definitely has the pedigree to get 9.5 furlongs. However, do you really think he can beat out all the speed, get enough of a breather to stay clear into the stretch and STILL fight off ‘Brown? I thought so.
3. Icabad Crane-
This guy’s among the longshot plodders that could get up for third in here as he is still lightly raced, showed nice improvement last time out over this track, and is in the hands of an excellent horseman. His Beyers are awfully light but that’s really not much of a concern because beyond the top pick everyone’s Beyers are light.
4. Yankee Bravo-
Another Californian who is a multiple stakes winner and will be a ways off the early pace. His rider won this race over 20 years ago and has enjoyed a re-emergence in 2008 but there are so many red flags on this guy. He has no early speed, his lone conventional dirt start was slow and he was beaten by two horses who have been unable to hit the board in two subsequent starts. It’s not encouraging that he has no dirt workouts and that he had no punch in the ninth furlong of the SA Derby.
5. Behindatthebar-
SCRATCHED.
6. Racecar Rhapsody-
This guy was highly regarded coming into 2008 as he closed out his ’07 campaign with strong finishes at Churchill and Delta. What we found out is that he’s a big-time plodder who needs a pace meltdown to have any type of involvement in the outcome. He closed gamely last time at Keeneland, but can you get a better setup than a :45 and 1/5 half-mile on the Polytrack? He’ll have to move forward a ton to contend.
7. Big Brown-
What more can you say about the Derby winner? He’s brilliantly fast, has a terrific mixture of raw and tactical speed and he has looked invincible in four career starts. Is there some reason to be concerned he bounces? Sure but this field is nothing like the group that FuPeg faced eight years ago. There are very few legitimate stakes competitors here and five of the eleven rivals he’s facing still have their N1X allowance conditions. Look for him to be close to the early pace, take over turning for home and head to Belmont looking for the Crown.
8. Kentucky Bear-
Could very well be the horse with the best chance of upsetting the favorite as there are quite a few things to like about him. He’s very lightly raced and has shown a couple of times that he may have potential. What he gives up in seasoning he gains back in conditioning because he is now running his 2nd race off a layoff and is working beautifully in the morning. This year’s Red Bullet?
9. Stevil-
One of the five eligible for a N1X, this guy will get some support because of the “12 wide bid” comment from his Blue Grass effort when he was in truth never involved in the outcome. His Beyer figures are not impressive and he is nothing more than an outsider.
10. Riley Tucker-
This guy’s going back to conventional dirt after two tries on the Polytrack at Keeneland. From his past performances it looks like he prefers the fake stuff as his last try against stakes company on dirt was a distant sixth-place finish behind Denis of Cork in the Southwest. Well-bred son of Harlan’s Holiday has a future, it’s just not on the surface he’s running on today.
11. Giant Moon-
The pride of New York needs to get back to the form he held over the winter as his Count Fleet was a sharp effort for a young three year-old. He has been subpar in two starts since including a fourth-place finish in the Wood Memorial last time out. He worked sharply on Tuesday and is much more effective when he’s right in the mix early, so look for Ramon Dominguez to be very aggressive early. He’ll give his backers a thrill for a short while.
12. Gayego-
Arkansas Derby winner showed nothing in the Derby and was an 11th hour entrant into this race. If you think he is more likely to run back to his strong races earlier in the spring then take a chance as his price will be solid. I’m more inclined to think the Derby was a pre-cursor to a bad Triple Crown run for this son of Gilded Time. Look for him to be involved early as he’s adding blinkers but be nowhere when the running starts.
13. Hey Byrn-
This guy made a name for himself at Gulfstream with a productive winter. His only blemish was a distant foruth behind Big Brown in the Fla Derby where he ran into some trouble in the early stages and had a wide trip. He bounced back from the Fla Derby with a strong race on short rest in the Holy Bull but still must improve further to be more than a superfecta threat in here. That type of improvement does seem like a distinct possibility.
SELECTIONS:
1. Big Brown 2. Kentucky Bear 3. Hey Byrn
LAST WEEK:
The Peter Pan was won by Casino Drive in impressive fashion and the Lone Star Derby went to favored El Gato Malo.
NEXT WEEK:
The American 1000 Guineas from Arlington Park and the Sheepshead Bay (G2) from Belmont Park.
Discuss
Add this link to...
Tell a friend
Bury
Comments