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This recaps the 2007 Saratoga season and points the way toward 2008. Click on the link "Saratoga track and turf bias" if you are taken to an intermediate page.
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Nick:
This is very informative, thanks for putting it together.
I was a little surprised to see the Inner and Mellon track almost identical in terms of their speed preference. I would have expected to see the Inner, with its tighter turns, favor front runners a little more. Was this an aberration for '07, or is the "tighter turns favor front runners" theory not on target??
I plan on a few days at Saratoga during Travers week, i will try and keep track of these stats for the '08 meet. I usually enjoy turf races more than dirt so hopefully it won't be "monsoon week" when i'm there ! --ron
rment,
Actually, the inner turf may be LESS beneficial for speed than the Mellon, most years. Eight of the last ten years, according to Mazur stats, have shown a lower percentage of wire winners on the inner than the Mellon.
The Track Profile ratings included in the column show this edge toward speed on the Mellon.
Now, make no mistake, neither course is speed favoring. If put into words, the Mellon is relatively unbiased, while the inner course has an edge to off-the-pace horses.
I know it sounds counterintuitive, but there it is.
Thanks for commenting.
I think the odds are pretty good that we won't get the weather this summer that we had in 2007, when practically no turf races were taken off.
Having said that, we're always good for at least one afternoon when out of the blue a monsoon appears. For your sake Ron, I hope you miss that day. If history is any indication, I won't.