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It’s Week 3 of the Dispatch Summer Stakes Series and we’re still towards the beginning of the countdown to the Belmont. This week we’ll take a look at the American 1000 Guineas from Arlington Park, which will be Race 6 on the 11 race program in Chicago. We’ll also look at the Sheepshead Bay (G2) from Belmont Park, which will be the featured ninth on a ten race card.
The $200,000 American 1000 Guineas
8.0 Furlongs (Turf)
Post Time: 4:32 PM EDT
1. Elle Tish Slew-
This gal is one of three who were entered in the Double Delta on opening day that was moved off the turf and won in wire to wire fashion by Dreaming of Liz. It’s tough to say which surface is best for this gal as she’s tried turf, dirt, and synthetic and hasn’t been terribly impressive on any of the three. Any way you slice it she seems more than a cut below the best here.
1A. Three Graces-
Her early speed will make her very attractive to plenty of bettors because you really don’t see too many quick, wire to wire wins like her last start at Hawthorne. She will meet some pace pressure in here and while that could be her undoing, I’m imagining she’ll run into trouble even earlier. Expecting her to duplicate her last effort seems like an exercise in futility. I’m tossing her.
2. Nijinsky Ballet-
Another who seems to be confused about her preferred surface even though she broke her maiden on the weeds last year down at Hawthorne. She’s making her third start off a layoff in here and did show improvement in the Double Delta while making a middle move. She’s going to be a big price in here and I suppose those of you shopping for a bomb could do worse.
3. Much Obliged-
This gal ran very well in two tries at Fair Grounds over the winter while her trainer enjoyed a nice run in New Orleans. She was in a bit over her head in the Appalachian and it is safe to say that this field is quite a bit softer. She’ll get a great pace setup and she’s in the careful hands of Arlington kingpin Chris Emigh. Value will not be there but she’s a major player any way you shake it.
4. Scolara-
A winner of two in a row on the sod, this daughter of Quiet American made a double move to get the job done at Keeneland in her last start. She’s worked well a couple of times recently and there’s no doubt her connections are top notch. Whether she ends up many lengths off the pace or up closer, you can expect her to unleash a powerful kick in a race where she is the one to beat.
5. Valentine Fever-
This gal has made it pretty clear she prefers synthetic surfaces but I suppose there are valid excuses for her two poor efforts on turf. She’ll catch a drier turf course in here, which should help her chances. What she’ll be working against is the fact that she’s never been as good around two turns, so she’ll have to handle more ground and a different surface in here. No thanks.
6. Cubs Fan-
Think there will be a good bit of sentimental money on this gal as she makes her Chicago unveiling on the north side of town? In her one turf start she ran well, finishing strongly to break her maiden by three. She’s bred for turf, ran well in her only try on the weeds, and is coming back here for a trainer who has hit twice with runners coming off long breaks. There are definitely things to like.
7. Jolie Visage-
This gal is kind of the wildcard in here as she has shown some speed in the past. If she takes back and for some reason Three Graces gets scratched or doesn’t break, ‘Liz could be loose on the lead. This gal made the pace from the far outside post a couple of weeks ago on a soft course and was collared late. She seems like one who needs an uncontested lead to be effective and that’s just not happening here.
8. Dreaming of Liz-
Have you ever seen a more gaudy win percentage than that of Wayne Catalano at this meet? He’s hitting .700 for the meet and seems poised to have a big day today with three stakes on tap. This gal will be making her turf debut in here after wiring the Double Delta three weeks ago. She is bred well for the turf and she seems to be back in form. Earlie Fires will be sending her right from the get-go but do yourself a favor and demand some sort of value on this gal before plunging.
9. Seemingly-
Dead last closer just missed last time at Keeneland after lagging over 10 lengths out in the early stages. She came close to her best Beyer Speed Figure of 2007 with an 80 last time out, and that often portends a big improvement. There would seem to be plenty of pace in here to set up her late run, but she’ll need to get into the bit earlier than she ever has before to get up at the flat mile. An interesting participant nonetheless.
SELECTIONS:
1. SCOLARA 2. MUCH OBLIGED 3. SEEMINGLY
The $150,000 Sheepshead Bay (G2)
11.0 Furlongs (Inner Turf)
Post Time: 5:15 PM EDT
1. Leap in the Sun-
Iwinski trainee has run the two best races of her life recently and has barely been within shouting distance of the leaders. She has an ugly tendency to lag way too far behind early and that is a big issue here as there is little to no early speed. If you think she can be a part of the bottom of the exotics, then go ahead, but I’d say she’s a longshot to hit the board.
2. Hostess-
Often a brides’ maid, this gal finally scored a graded stakes win in the Orchid last time out at Gulfstream. She has proven to be plenty capable of picking up the pieces in races that are run quickly early. This race will not be run in such a fashion, as they are likely to dawdle through the first three-quarters of a mile in here. Who knows what happens if JV tries to put her into the race a little early also? Class alone earns her consideration in the multi-race gimmicks.
3. Ochre-
This daughter of Red Ransom seemed immensely talented as a juvenile but she obviously ran into some injury trouble. The marathon distances could be just what the doctor ordered as she handled the mile and a half with great ease in her last start. While it’s not encouraging that the runner-up was a non factor in a N1X on Friday and that Johnny V goes elsewhere, you have to respect that this gal can be close to the early pace.
4. Herboriste-
Another dead last closer here who has a tendency to find trouble because of her running style. There’s no doubt that she has no problem going 11 furlongs, but you have to wonder how much ground she’ll be able to make up into a half that could go at or around :51. GoGo getting on is nice but I’d need a really solid price to get excited.
5. Rising Cross-
No participant will have more of a say in the outcome of this event than this gal as she could be the key to the early pace. She tracked the frontrunners in the Bewitch and came up short in the lane but that was her first start of 2008 . Expect her to be much more fit in here and if Prado can get the early lead, she will be very tough. The pick to lead at every pole.
6. J’Ray-
This gal thrives in South Florida as she has long been a Calder horse for course. She did some good work at Gulfstream as well but looks to be terribly overbet here as she found a way to lose the Mairzy Doates last time out despite enjoying a perfect trip. Eibar Coa should be able to put her wherever he pleases in the early going but that still does not mean she can beat a field like this.
7. Flawless Treasure-
This gal won an overnight stakes race that was a prep for this event from off the pace. They will go even slower in here which really does not play into her hands. She is trained by the red-hot Barclay Tagg, which is certainly a good thing, but there must be some level of concern that she’ll have little chance to run down the speed.
8. Mauralakana-
Since moving into the barn of Christophe Clement she has thrived and perhaps it was as simple as figuring out that she wanted to go long. She has also rated much farther behind the early pace in her last three than she had prior. Clement’s barn is firing a bit better now as he has two winners this week after starting the meet 0 for 14. Look for her late.
SELECTIONS:
1. RISING CROSS 2. HOSTESS 3. MAURALAKANA
LAST WEEK:
The Preakness was won by our top pick Big Brown but punters who wagered on the son of Boundary did not get rich. The Dixie was won in fine fashion by longshot Pays to Dream.
NEXT WEEK:
The Californian Handicap from Hollywood and the Ohio Derby from Thistledown.
Discuss
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The $200,000 American 1000 Guineas
8.0 Furlongs (Turf)
Post Time: 4:32 PM EDT
1. Elle Tish Slew-
This gal is one of three who were entered in the Double Delta on opening day that was moved off the turf and won in wire to wire fashion by Dreaming of Liz. It’s tough to say which surface is best for this gal as she’s tried turf, dirt, and synthetic and hasn’t been terribly impressive on any of the three. Any way you slice it she seems more than a cut below the best here.
1A. Three Graces-
Her early speed will make her very attractive to plenty of bettors because you really don’t see too many quick, wire to wire wins like her last start at Hawthorne. She will meet some pace pressure in here and while that could be her undoing, I’m imagining she’ll run into trouble even earlier. Expecting her to duplicate her last effort seems like an exercise in futility. I’m tossing her.
2. Nijinsky Ballet-
Another who seems to be confused about her preferred surface even though she broke her maiden on the weeds last year down at Hawthorne. She’s making her third start off a layoff in here and did show improvement in the Double Delta while making a middle move. She’s going to be a big price in here and I suppose those of you shopping for a bomb could do worse.
3. Much Obliged-
This gal ran very well in two tries at Fair Grounds over the winter while her trainer enjoyed a nice run in New Orleans. She was in a bit over her head in the Appalachian and it is safe to say that this field is quite a bit softer. She’ll get a great pace setup and she’s in the careful hands of Arlington kingpin Chris Emigh. Value will not be there but she’s a major player any way you shake it.
4. Scolara-
A winner of two in a row on the sod, this daughter of Quiet American made a double move to get the job done at Keeneland in her last start. She’s worked well a couple of times recently and there’s no doubt her connections are top notch. Whether she ends up many lengths off the pace or up closer, you can expect her to unleash a powerful kick in a race where she is the one to beat.
5. Valentine Fever-
This gal has made it pretty clear she prefers synthetic surfaces but I suppose there are valid excuses for her two poor efforts on turf. She’ll catch a drier turf course in here, which should help her chances. What she’ll be working against is the fact that she’s never been as good around two turns, so she’ll have to handle more ground and a different surface in here. No thanks.
6. Cubs Fan-
Think there will be a good bit of sentimental money on this gal as she makes her Chicago unveiling on the north side of town? In her one turf start she ran well, finishing strongly to break her maiden by three. She’s bred for turf, ran well in her only try on the weeds, and is coming back here for a trainer who has hit twice with runners coming off long breaks. There are definitely things to like.
7. Jolie Visage-
This gal is kind of the wildcard in here as she has shown some speed in the past. If she takes back and for some reason Three Graces gets scratched or doesn’t break, ‘Liz could be loose on the lead. This gal made the pace from the far outside post a couple of weeks ago on a soft course and was collared late. She seems like one who needs an uncontested lead to be effective and that’s just not happening here.
8. Dreaming of Liz-
Have you ever seen a more gaudy win percentage than that of Wayne Catalano at this meet? He’s hitting .700 for the meet and seems poised to have a big day today with three stakes on tap. This gal will be making her turf debut in here after wiring the Double Delta three weeks ago. She is bred well for the turf and she seems to be back in form. Earlie Fires will be sending her right from the get-go but do yourself a favor and demand some sort of value on this gal before plunging.
9. Seemingly-
Dead last closer just missed last time at Keeneland after lagging over 10 lengths out in the early stages. She came close to her best Beyer Speed Figure of 2007 with an 80 last time out, and that often portends a big improvement. There would seem to be plenty of pace in here to set up her late run, but she’ll need to get into the bit earlier than she ever has before to get up at the flat mile. An interesting participant nonetheless.
SELECTIONS:
1. SCOLARA 2. MUCH OBLIGED 3. SEEMINGLY
The $150,000 Sheepshead Bay (G2)
11.0 Furlongs (Inner Turf)
Post Time: 5:15 PM EDT
1. Leap in the Sun-
Iwinski trainee has run the two best races of her life recently and has barely been within shouting distance of the leaders. She has an ugly tendency to lag way too far behind early and that is a big issue here as there is little to no early speed. If you think she can be a part of the bottom of the exotics, then go ahead, but I’d say she’s a longshot to hit the board.
2. Hostess-
Often a brides’ maid, this gal finally scored a graded stakes win in the Orchid last time out at Gulfstream. She has proven to be plenty capable of picking up the pieces in races that are run quickly early. This race will not be run in such a fashion, as they are likely to dawdle through the first three-quarters of a mile in here. Who knows what happens if JV tries to put her into the race a little early also? Class alone earns her consideration in the multi-race gimmicks.
3. Ochre-
This daughter of Red Ransom seemed immensely talented as a juvenile but she obviously ran into some injury trouble. The marathon distances could be just what the doctor ordered as she handled the mile and a half with great ease in her last start. While it’s not encouraging that the runner-up was a non factor in a N1X on Friday and that Johnny V goes elsewhere, you have to respect that this gal can be close to the early pace.
4. Herboriste-
Another dead last closer here who has a tendency to find trouble because of her running style. There’s no doubt that she has no problem going 11 furlongs, but you have to wonder how much ground she’ll be able to make up into a half that could go at or around :51. GoGo getting on is nice but I’d need a really solid price to get excited.
5. Rising Cross-
No participant will have more of a say in the outcome of this event than this gal as she could be the key to the early pace. She tracked the frontrunners in the Bewitch and came up short in the lane but that was her first start of 2008 . Expect her to be much more fit in here and if Prado can get the early lead, she will be very tough. The pick to lead at every pole.
6. J’Ray-
This gal thrives in South Florida as she has long been a Calder horse for course. She did some good work at Gulfstream as well but looks to be terribly overbet here as she found a way to lose the Mairzy Doates last time out despite enjoying a perfect trip. Eibar Coa should be able to put her wherever he pleases in the early going but that still does not mean she can beat a field like this.
7. Flawless Treasure-
This gal won an overnight stakes race that was a prep for this event from off the pace. They will go even slower in here which really does not play into her hands. She is trained by the red-hot Barclay Tagg, which is certainly a good thing, but there must be some level of concern that she’ll have little chance to run down the speed.
8. Mauralakana-
Since moving into the barn of Christophe Clement she has thrived and perhaps it was as simple as figuring out that she wanted to go long. She has also rated much farther behind the early pace in her last three than she had prior. Clement’s barn is firing a bit better now as he has two winners this week after starting the meet 0 for 14. Look for her late.
SELECTIONS:
1. RISING CROSS 2. HOSTESS 3. MAURALAKANA
LAST WEEK:
The Preakness was won by our top pick Big Brown but punters who wagered on the son of Boundary did not get rich. The Dixie was won in fine fashion by longshot Pays to Dream.
NEXT WEEK:
The Californian Handicap from Hollywood and the Ohio Derby from Thistledown.
Discuss
Add this link to...
Tell a friend
Bury
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