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Another weekend of stakes races are upon us and while this week’s calendar is not as loaded as many of the summer, including next week’s, there are a few intriguing stakes events to analyze. We’ll take a look at the $300,000 Ohio Derby (G2) from Thistledown and the $250,000 Californian (G2) from Hollywood Park.
The $300,000 Ohio Derby (G2)
9.0 Furlongs
1. Smooth Air-
One of the two Kentucky Derby also-rans in here and the likely 2nd choice, this son of Smooth Jazz was a “wiseguy” pick of many followers of the Sheets leading up to the Run for the Roses. He spiked a fever the week before the Derby and looked to be on the fence but in the end he showed up and had no impact on the outcome. He has proven to be capable around two turns and an expected hot pace will help his chances, I’m just not convinced that 3-1 is a good price on a grinder who peaked two races ago.
2. Medjool-
A beautifully bred son of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, this guy is now making his first start for trainer Michael Matz after spending his entire career with David Hofmans. This will be his first try on conventional dirt after eight races on a variety of synthetic surfaces including Cushion Track, Tapeta, and Polytrack. He proved incapable of competing with graded stakes company on the “fake” stuff and while that doesn’t say much about his chances here, he’ll probably need a race given Matz’s numbers with new arrivals to his barn.
3. Your Round-
Versatile son of Distorted Humor has hit the board on turf, conventional dirt, and Polytrack and looked to be on the Derby trail before being shelved in March. The pace scenario would seem to set up very well for him here as he is a one run closer and there is a bundle of early speed set to spar and he has done hi sbest work when fresh. Miguel Mena coming in for the mount is a good sign as well, especially with there being three stakes races on the card under the Twin Spires today. This guy is very interesting at a nice price.
4. Instill-
After a terribly dull effort in the Ill Derby this guy bounced back nicely to beat OLDER state breds on the Illinois Champions card at Hawthorne. He’s posted a couple of works since then but there has to be some concern that he comes crashing back down to Earth after posting that 101 Beyer figure. He hadn’t ever come close to anything like that in the past and it sticks out like a sore thumb in his running lines. It is also a tad puzzling that Jesse Campbell wouldn’t pop over from Chicago for a mount in a Grade II race.
5. Stolen Chevy-
There’s no rating this guy as he has been in front at every call in each of his last three starts. He ran a huge race to break his maiden off the bench then came back with a solid effort that actually showed a slight regression from his maiden win. In his last start he moved forward and the public finally caught onto him, dispatching him at 4/5. He is bred to handle the added ground, but the pressure of having bona fide stakes competitors ready to pounce behind you and potentially having a sprinter right at your throat latch should be enough to keep this guy off the board.
6. Celtic Meal-
His connections were probably as thrilled to see the rival to his inside as Stolen Chevy’s were to see this guy. He is another who has breakneck early speed and he is probably faster than any in here in the early stages. He set a :44 and 4/5 half mile on the Tapeta at Presque Isle last time out and should be out there winging right from the outset in here. It won’t be a question of whether this guy can lead to the finish line, but whether he can lead the field to the quarter pole.
7. Z Fortune-
The likely favorite in here and deservedly so as he is the lone two-turn graded stakes winner. He was another sexy Kentucky Derby pick leading up to the race as his wide trip in the Ark Derby was much ballyhooed. In the long run it looks like that was a very soft race as the winner was walloped in the Derby and Preakness, this guy was well beaten in the Derby and the show horse was pounded in the Preakness. However, this guy still has enough back class to be given a long look and the pace scenario also sets up well for him. GoGo should be able to get him into a nice spot early and will be ready to pounce as they round the far turn.
8. Cherokee Artist-
Arguably the most interesting entrant in here as you have to remember that many a quality 2nd half 3YO get started winning big races around this time. This guy ran a phenomenal race in his debut as he was deep in the pack behind a slow pace on a track that favored speed and had a pretty dead rail. He was full of run as they came to the wire and looked as if he wouldn’t be a maiden for long. Less than three weeks later on the Derby undercard he got the job done at CD and his trainer clearly thinks enough of him to enter him in a stakes race right away. Graham Motion is not one to ship his horses all over the place, so it’s significant that he has enough confidence in this guy to bring him here. Very intriguing.
SELECTIONS:
1. CHEROKEE ARTIST 2. Z FORTUNE 3. YOUR ROUND
The $250,000 Californian (G2)
9.0 Furlongs
1. Heatseeker-
This guy has really come to bear in the last six months as he took the Native Diver over this racetrack way back in December against the odds. Since then he has hit the board four times and also won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). He didn’t shame himself on conventional dirt last time out, finishing a head behind Tiago in the Oaklawn Handicap. The fact that there is only one frontrunner will be to his detriment in here but not quite as bad as Tiago and Surf Cat potentially. If Bejarano can get him goin gas they move into the turn he might get the jump on the other two and be very tough to catch.
2. Tiago-
He’s now back on Heatseeker’s turf as it seems like he definitely prefers conventional dirt to the synthetic stuff. He was dead game in winning the Oaklawn Handicap, which was his first win since September at Santa Anita. He showed a new dimension in the Oaklawn ‘Cap too as he was not far off the early pace at all and that will help him here as there is zero early zip beyond Albertus Maximus. He’ll certainly bring his ‘A’ game but it’s tough to say if it’ll be enough to get it done here.
3. Surf Cat-
One of California’s favorites, this guy is still kicking at age 6 and is now making his third start off a layoff and is coming off a solid win in the Mervyn LeRoy. He didn’t exactly break the clock coming home in the LeRoy and his Beyer figure was a little light in comparison to the recent tallies of the two to his inside. He’ll have to be a faster horse than he has been recently to win this race and I just don’t see him finding that necessary quickness.
5. Albertus Maximus-
Clearly the most dangerous runner in here as he is the lone speed in a small field and is running over a racetrack he loves. Tiago got the better of him in the Swaps over this track last year and then he was a non factor in the Pac Classic and an allowance race here last year. Trainer Gary Mandella freshened him for ’08 and he has come back nicely with a solid third on the SA Derby undercard then a powerful N2X win five and a half weeks ago. The water is obviously much, much deeper here, but lone speed is tough to ignore.
SELECTIONS:
1. HEATSEEKER 2. ALBERTUS MAXIMUS 3. TIAGO
Last Week:
The Sheepshead Bay was won in powerful fashion by Mauralakana and our top pick, Rising Cross, never got involved. The inaugural American 1000 Guineas went to Much Obliged over Scolara, our exacta selections.
Next Week:
The Belmont and Manhattan will be our focus as the Big Brown’s quest for the Crown will capture the attention of all racing fans.
Discuss
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The $300,000 Ohio Derby (G2)
9.0 Furlongs
1. Smooth Air-
One of the two Kentucky Derby also-rans in here and the likely 2nd choice, this son of Smooth Jazz was a “wiseguy” pick of many followers of the Sheets leading up to the Run for the Roses. He spiked a fever the week before the Derby and looked to be on the fence but in the end he showed up and had no impact on the outcome. He has proven to be capable around two turns and an expected hot pace will help his chances, I’m just not convinced that 3-1 is a good price on a grinder who peaked two races ago.
2. Medjool-
A beautifully bred son of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, this guy is now making his first start for trainer Michael Matz after spending his entire career with David Hofmans. This will be his first try on conventional dirt after eight races on a variety of synthetic surfaces including Cushion Track, Tapeta, and Polytrack. He proved incapable of competing with graded stakes company on the “fake” stuff and while that doesn’t say much about his chances here, he’ll probably need a race given Matz’s numbers with new arrivals to his barn.
3. Your Round-
Versatile son of Distorted Humor has hit the board on turf, conventional dirt, and Polytrack and looked to be on the Derby trail before being shelved in March. The pace scenario would seem to set up very well for him here as he is a one run closer and there is a bundle of early speed set to spar and he has done hi sbest work when fresh. Miguel Mena coming in for the mount is a good sign as well, especially with there being three stakes races on the card under the Twin Spires today. This guy is very interesting at a nice price.
4. Instill-
After a terribly dull effort in the Ill Derby this guy bounced back nicely to beat OLDER state breds on the Illinois Champions card at Hawthorne. He’s posted a couple of works since then but there has to be some concern that he comes crashing back down to Earth after posting that 101 Beyer figure. He hadn’t ever come close to anything like that in the past and it sticks out like a sore thumb in his running lines. It is also a tad puzzling that Jesse Campbell wouldn’t pop over from Chicago for a mount in a Grade II race.
5. Stolen Chevy-
There’s no rating this guy as he has been in front at every call in each of his last three starts. He ran a huge race to break his maiden off the bench then came back with a solid effort that actually showed a slight regression from his maiden win. In his last start he moved forward and the public finally caught onto him, dispatching him at 4/5. He is bred to handle the added ground, but the pressure of having bona fide stakes competitors ready to pounce behind you and potentially having a sprinter right at your throat latch should be enough to keep this guy off the board.
6. Celtic Meal-
His connections were probably as thrilled to see the rival to his inside as Stolen Chevy’s were to see this guy. He is another who has breakneck early speed and he is probably faster than any in here in the early stages. He set a :44 and 4/5 half mile on the Tapeta at Presque Isle last time out and should be out there winging right from the outset in here. It won’t be a question of whether this guy can lead to the finish line, but whether he can lead the field to the quarter pole.
7. Z Fortune-
The likely favorite in here and deservedly so as he is the lone two-turn graded stakes winner. He was another sexy Kentucky Derby pick leading up to the race as his wide trip in the Ark Derby was much ballyhooed. In the long run it looks like that was a very soft race as the winner was walloped in the Derby and Preakness, this guy was well beaten in the Derby and the show horse was pounded in the Preakness. However, this guy still has enough back class to be given a long look and the pace scenario also sets up well for him. GoGo should be able to get him into a nice spot early and will be ready to pounce as they round the far turn.
8. Cherokee Artist-
Arguably the most interesting entrant in here as you have to remember that many a quality 2nd half 3YO get started winning big races around this time. This guy ran a phenomenal race in his debut as he was deep in the pack behind a slow pace on a track that favored speed and had a pretty dead rail. He was full of run as they came to the wire and looked as if he wouldn’t be a maiden for long. Less than three weeks later on the Derby undercard he got the job done at CD and his trainer clearly thinks enough of him to enter him in a stakes race right away. Graham Motion is not one to ship his horses all over the place, so it’s significant that he has enough confidence in this guy to bring him here. Very intriguing.
SELECTIONS:
1. CHEROKEE ARTIST 2. Z FORTUNE 3. YOUR ROUND
The $250,000 Californian (G2)
9.0 Furlongs
1. Heatseeker-
This guy has really come to bear in the last six months as he took the Native Diver over this racetrack way back in December against the odds. Since then he has hit the board four times and also won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). He didn’t shame himself on conventional dirt last time out, finishing a head behind Tiago in the Oaklawn Handicap. The fact that there is only one frontrunner will be to his detriment in here but not quite as bad as Tiago and Surf Cat potentially. If Bejarano can get him goin gas they move into the turn he might get the jump on the other two and be very tough to catch.
2. Tiago-
He’s now back on Heatseeker’s turf as it seems like he definitely prefers conventional dirt to the synthetic stuff. He was dead game in winning the Oaklawn Handicap, which was his first win since September at Santa Anita. He showed a new dimension in the Oaklawn ‘Cap too as he was not far off the early pace at all and that will help him here as there is zero early zip beyond Albertus Maximus. He’ll certainly bring his ‘A’ game but it’s tough to say if it’ll be enough to get it done here.
3. Surf Cat-
One of California’s favorites, this guy is still kicking at age 6 and is now making his third start off a layoff and is coming off a solid win in the Mervyn LeRoy. He didn’t exactly break the clock coming home in the LeRoy and his Beyer figure was a little light in comparison to the recent tallies of the two to his inside. He’ll have to be a faster horse than he has been recently to win this race and I just don’t see him finding that necessary quickness.
5. Albertus Maximus-
Clearly the most dangerous runner in here as he is the lone speed in a small field and is running over a racetrack he loves. Tiago got the better of him in the Swaps over this track last year and then he was a non factor in the Pac Classic and an allowance race here last year. Trainer Gary Mandella freshened him for ’08 and he has come back nicely with a solid third on the SA Derby undercard then a powerful N2X win five and a half weeks ago. The water is obviously much, much deeper here, but lone speed is tough to ignore.
SELECTIONS:
1. HEATSEEKER 2. ALBERTUS MAXIMUS 3. TIAGO
Last Week:
The Sheepshead Bay was won in powerful fashion by Mauralakana and our top pick, Rising Cross, never got involved. The inaugural American 1000 Guineas went to Much Obliged over Scolara, our exacta selections.
Next Week:
The Belmont and Manhattan will be our focus as the Big Brown’s quest for the Crown will capture the attention of all racing fans.
Discuss
Add this link to...
Tell a friend
Bury
Comments