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For folks new to the game, a horse must finish first, second, or third to collect on a show bet. It makes no difference which of those three position the animal attains.
There is a special breed of bettor who wagers a large amount of money to show on a heavy favorite in order to cash. They have been given the nickname "bridgejumper" because the expected $2.10 payoff for a $2.00 wager requires hitting 96 percent of the time. If the player chases a $500 profit by betting $10,000, and the favorite finishes out of the money, you can hear the splash when the bridgejumper hits the water down below.
One exception to the extremes outlined above is making a small show bet AGAINST a heavy favorite. It is not unusual to see show payoffs in the $20-$100 range for a $2.00 wager when the favorite finishes out of the money.
In his book, 'Scared Money,' author Mark Cramer described just such a score. The method involves betting "all" to show in a five-horse field, when he believed the chalk might falter. The worst that can happen, if you risk $2.00 on each horse, is a net loss of $3.70. That is the result when you multiply $2.00 by five horses to equal a $10.00 investment. If the favorite finishes in the money, the least you can collect is $6.30 ($2.10 by three show finishers).
Over the years, this wager has proven one of the most profitable I make. After handicapping a five-horse race, I will make the bet if one of two conditions exists. Either I believe the favorite can lose, or, I believe the horse will take such a huge percentage of the show pool it is worth the risk in case lightning strikes.
When I've made that bet, I've expected to lose my $3.70 when the favorite finished in the money. However, a strange thing happened during the Saratoga meet. An odds-on favorite finished in the money, and I still made a small profit.
I was trying to figure out why when another bettor saw my puzzlement. He said, "The answer is three words -- net pool pricing."
I don't profess to understand the math behind net pool pricing. All I know is that since the New York Racing Association (NYRA) has adopted net pool pricing, show payoffs for short- to medium-priced horses have increased. That means a horse which might have paid $2.50 show at one time might now pay $2.80. Thirty cents more doesn't sound like much, until you realize the net return for a $2.00 bet has climbed 60 percent!
Since my epiphany regarding net pool pricing, I've wanted to do an analysis of show payoffs in New York when there is an odds-on favorite. Now that the Saratoga meet is over, I've had the time.
I decided to use the Belmont spring/summer meet as my model. Show payoffs are probably higher at Saratoga because of the influx of so-called "uninformed" money from novice bettors. Likewise, show payoffs at Aqueduct may be low because Big A players are the hardcore, and field size can be smaller. Belmont, I surmised, should be somewhere in the middle.
During the Belmont meet, which lasted from April 30 through July 19, there were 113 races where show betting was offered and the field contained an odds-on favorite. From those races, 98 favorites (87 percent) finished in the money. 15 (13 percent) did not.
My next filter was field size. There were 24 races which met the above criteria and had five betting interests. In only 3 of those events (12.5 percent) did the odds-on favorite finish OUT of the money. Nevertheless, the payoffs were promising.
If you had bet $2.00 to show on "all" in those 24 races, your total investment would have been $240.00. The total payoff return from the show finishers in those events was $228.70.
That yields a net loss of $11.30 and a return on investment (ROI) of $1.91. Your first reaction might be, well, a loss is a loss, right? Maybe.
The $1.91 ROI is BETTER than the return you would get by betting favorites in every race. Favorites win between 30-33 percent of the time, and produce an ROI of between $1.60 and $1.70, on average.
Now plug in a little handicapping. Remember, these results were obtained from all five-horse races with an odds-on favorite. If you had been able to eliminate three or four races where solid favorites finished in the money, the ROI would climb above break even.
The key to this outcome appears to be net pool pricing. NONE of the 24 races used in this sample returned the bare minimum of $6.30. The two lowest payoffs were $6.50. The vast majority were $7.00 or higher.
There is a downside. When something is added to one end of a scale, it must be taken away from the other end. The highest payoffs appear to be smaller than they might once have been. The Belmont Stakes show prices, where Big Brown was eased at 30 cents on the dollar, totaled $32.70.
The ROI drops away when field size expands. There were 25 races with six-horse fields which fit the other criteria. The ROI was $1.71 from a net loss of $44.10. There is some evidence these races might be made profitable, but for now, those with five-horse fields and bad odds-on favorites offer the richest ore to mine.
