How good is Curlin?

He's won the most money of any thoroughbred in history, but where does he rank? Money is a poor variable to distinguish historical placement and significance. So I dug-up some speed figures to help us gauge where Curlin ranks amongst some of the best we've seen recently. Here is a breakdown of Beyer speed figures earned by seven of the top horses since the 1990's sorted first by their top figure overall:

This chart puts everything into perspective fairly quickly. Curlin is a beast, there are no two ways about it. However, so was Ghostzapper, Skip Away, Holy Bull and the former record holder, Cigar. At this point, Curlin has earned less figures in the 116-120 range than Mineshaft.

Speed figures sometimes take-on fuzzy math and human intervention but as a whole they are the best barometer for a cross-generation comparison of race horses. When do you think we will see another 128 like Ghostzapper's Iselin Handicap or a 124 like his Breeders' Cup Classic?

The purpose of this is not to degrade Curlin but to help put him in perspective. The bottom line? It's been nearly five years since we have had a horse even toy with a spot amongst the top horses of the past decade or so and to have the opportunity to see him as a 4-year-old is outstanding. And for that, we must be grateful.

Update (5:05pm): Gary West authors an interesting perspective on how good Curlin is given yesterday's performance.

Comments

[greg]

BSF are almost as useless a "variable" than earnings are when comparing horses.
If we go by the BSF, Lawyer Ron, who lost twice to Curlin last year, would be considered better then Curlin.

[Travis Stone]

One or two speed figures cannot and should not independently categorize or be used as a comparison. However, a larger sample of multiple figures (like the samples used in the table) should be sufficient enough.

[greg]

"One or two speed figures cannot and should not independently categorize or be used as a comparison."
Good point. Ghostzapper was a sprinter/shorter distance horse for much of his career. His BSF figures for races at mile or under should be removed from the list, since all Curlin's races were run over a longer distance. Can't compare a sprint with a route BSF-wise. So take away his Met Mile at 122, the 7F Tom Fool, at 120, The 6.5F Vosburgh 116, and what do you have?
You have two off the charts BSF and one on a wacky day at Lone Star Park? Lone Star? No doubt he was the best but that BSF is baloney. And the another at Monmouth? Like you said "One or two speed figures cannot and should not independently categorize or be used as a comparison."