Kent’s Ride: Stride-by-stride

For some reason, everyone, columnists and racing fans alike, are champing at the bit to blame Kent Desormeaux’s ride in the Belmont Stakes for the loss of Big Brown. I suppose blame has to fall onto someone shoulders, because our society seems to function that way.

Let’s take a look at the first furlong of the Belmont Stakes in YouTube-like fashion. I apologize for unclear quality of the images, but they’re taken right off of YouTube which isn’t HDTV to begin with.

Here they are in the starting gate, moments before the latch was sprung. Big Brown is on the inside circle in white. This photo is merely for reference.

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The gates open and Big Brown makes a right hand turn out of the gate. As you can see from the screenshot, Big Brown ended-up in the lane of #2 Quadalcanal. Ironically, the concern was whether the maiden would break well and cause Big Brown trouble, but as you can see, it was the other way around.

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This is approximately a 16th of a mile into the race. Da’ Tara and Alan Garcia shot-out of the gate, taking advantage of Big Brown’s sluggish start, to make the lead and find the rail. This screenshot shows Desormeaux angling Big Brown out, which everyone is claiming they wanted him to do. I’ve highlighted Tale of Ekati as he is currently making a hard left hand drift to gain position as well.

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This is literally a few strides after the previous image. When Big Brown tries to come out, as you can see, Tale of Ekati and Coa effectively force him back inside, buried behind Da’ Tara and stuck inside of him. This is clear by Big Brown's leaning inside as he moves back toward the rail. This was remarkably effective race riding by Coa. Within those few moments, he put Big Brown in a position he has never been in: buried inside horses and dirt coming-back to his face.

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And so finally, we see the impact these few events had on the overall trip for Big Brown. Going into the first turn, he is buried, he is stymied, he is getting dirt in his face, there is a loose-on-the-lead leader and Big Brown, for the first time ever, is not outside in a comfortable spot. In this image, you can see just how buried he is.

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Now in unfamiliar territory, Big Brown starts tossing his head as Kent tries to make him comfortable. Big Brown is completely unpleased with the status-quo.

So this all said (and seen), how can one truly place the blame of Desormeaux? It seems as though people are reacting solely to the pan shot, the typical view of the race, rather than what the head-on is showing us, which is similar to judging a book solely based on its cover.

Big Brown and Desormeaux had the proverbial target on their back. Coa used it and so did Garcia. The result? It worked. Big Brown was taken completely out of his game and for whatever other reasons, failed to fire. Desormeaux not the cause.

Comments

[Justin]

I agree completely. Big Brown just didn't have it, and broke from the gate awkwardly, and Coa does a great job to box him back inside. Kent Desormeaux really didn't have any horse, like he said, combined with the poor start on Big Brown's part. No chance from the very beginning. Kent Desormeaux is taking undeserved blame because Rick Dutrow Jr. doesn't know when to shut up! If there's ever a guarantee in sports, it's a guaranteed disappointment.

[mike]

This analysis is dead on! Big Brown got angry and frustrated with the early handling and compromised position and just simply quit running. Certainly explains why the #20 post selection in the Derby was such a no brainer. If War Pass could throw in a huge clunker in the Tampa Bay Derby, why not Big Brown in the Belmont?

[The Old Hozer]

What are you people, blind or nitwits? The horse in photo #2 this bozo has circled as Big Brown "taking a right out of the gate" IS Guadalcanal. Seriously, are you blind? Are you telling me you can't see Big Brown in the second photo? Duh, he's the one to the right of Guadalcanal, with a football of clearance to go up the wood. Nitwits.

[Travis Stone]

I think you're blind. I circled Big Brown buddy, he veered-out to the right out of the gate.

[The Old Hozer]

I completely agree? What? Hey folks, the horse in the second photo that's supposed to be Big Brown "taking a right out of the gate" is, in fact, Guadalcanal. Are you telling me you can't see Big Brown clear as day in the second photo? Oooooooooops! Nice blog ...

[Travis Stone]

Are you being serious? Or is this some sort of joke?

[Travis Stone]

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/06/11/sports/11racing.1.600.jpg

A good photo of Big Brown veering-out...

[dgstan]

What the photos don't show (and what I think KD is taking the most criticism for) is later as they enter the turn, he pulls BB off the rail and BB reacts terribly, tossing his head and breaking stride. But I don't blame KD at all. He was trying to get his horse into a better position - off the rail and into the clear. If KD doesn't tug BB off the rail, then he would have been criticized for allowing BB to get boxed in all the way around the track.

Regardless, if the horse was ready to run, none of these issues would have mattered. I have no problem blaming Dutrow if that's OK with y'all.

[Justin]

The joke is on you "The Old Hozer". You got your horses mixed up. He circled Big Brown correctly in the second photo. Look at the front wraps, Guadalcanal wasn't wearing any!! You can clearly see them on Big Brown. Idiot.

[Jim]

Some good posts here besides the obvious. Travis, nice analysis of the begginning, the BB did not like the going in tight, but, I seem to remember him emerging from similar tight quarters in Baltimore, so, the inexperience factor does not hold enough water to explain the poor showing. Nor for that matter do many of analysts comments that have followed the race. In fact, I would accuse many people of overlooking the obvious: BB's feet were the cause.

Much like professional sports injuries, quarter cracks can have a deleterious effect on the horse psychie, first and foremost. The reasons why many observers overlook the possibility of his feet being behind the cause of the poor result is that the horse showed no signs of pain after the race - "his feet are ice cold" - as the illustrious R.Dutrow said. But, that's just it, think about it, remember that time you dove for a baseball and broke your ankle or tore your tendon - you never attempt the same move again without thinking twice - there is a mental barrier that causes you to play tentitively, simultaneously throwing you way off your game. Well, I contend that the same thing happened with BB. The fact that his quarter crack reappeared during traning made him realize that "ouch" "this hurts when I run." Consequently, racing him so soon after his injury had a disastrous effect on the outcome (remember he has a history of this). It's not that he was hurting after or during the race that counted, its the fact that, as many people have said, "he is a very intelligent horse," thus, he did not want to get hurt, so he avoided putting to much pressure on those feet that he knew bothered him.

This, I submit, was the real reason behind the result. Unfortunately, lost in all this is one of the most magnificent horses I have seen run in a long time - truly a beautiful and praise worthy colt.

[KB]

This analysis seems to be missing a few key elements. You are looking at photos from the front of the race. Should you have happened to post photos from the side view, perhaps what you will notice is a horse trying to run and a jockey with something else in mind. Kent was holding him back from the start. Kent confused BB. Run, no don't run, go here, wait, crash into Tale of Ekati, now, go to the outside, there you go, now run..... I think but don't know because when it is time to go, where is the whip??? Not sure if I really am suppose to run now and sure don't want to get bumped in the mouth AGAIN!!!! Oh, here we go again... I'm being asked to slow down and quit running in the middle of a race... What the heck does this jockey want out of me. I use to trust his judgement, he just blew it.

[KB]

Had Kent actually let BB run, he would have either been in front of or beside Da'tara in which case BB wouldn't have been cut off by Tale of Ekati which caused the two horses to connect (Tale of Ekati suffered a torn heel and some cuts and bruises) Which was the fatal blow in this race. Kent used all of BB's energy to pull him up and re-direct him and take him 5 wide at the big sandy in 90 degree humid heat. That and his light training schedule was enough to do the Big brown monster in. When a horse suffers this much in a race, you can bet there is someone to blame. Big Browns people failed him, including his jockey.

[KB]

I also must say that this analysis of photo 6 is the biggest mistake on this blog. This is actually a great photo and confirms my thoughts on this race. I'm not sure where you get that Kent is trying to make his horse comfortable here but BB is throwing his head around. I think what you will see when you watch the replay is BB is wanting to go right here and go to the lead and he had the open postion to do it but Kent is all over him asking him not to run. He is throwing his head around because he wants to race and Kent has a tight hold on him. If Kent was trying to make his horse comfortable, he wouldn't be holding him so tightly. All this did was give Da'tara an open chance to cut in front of him to the rail and an open chance for Tale of Ekati to close the hole. Would he had won if he was able to go the lead and dictate this slow pace??? Who knows, but I guarantee you would have seen a much different and happier horse. I am baffled by Kent's ride.

[KB]

One more comment and then I'm done. I agree with you 100% regarding Coa and Garcia. I do belive Coa sacrificed his horse to box BB in. He almost caused an accident and caused injury to his horse possibly costing his own horse the race however, if you also notice in photo 6, Kent is looking to his right while holding BB. He is already looking for a spot to take BB outside instead of letting BB run on the inside. Kent is the one who played right into the hands of Coa and Garcia. Kent had a stragedy and BB had another. Kent should have been more aware of his position and letting the race and BB dictate his position instead of being dead set on his stragedy and placing BB where it was nearly impossible to get to. Kent forgot to use the feel of horse and instead tried to use his own smarts. So with that said, I am not saying Kent is a poor jockey, I am saying he made some of the worst decisions I have ever seen in a race. He eased BB up because he knew he failed his horse.

[Chalk Eater]

Old Hozer = Blind Nitwit.
Rick Dutrow = Nit Blindwit.

Old Hozer loves Rick Dutrow!

[roscoe]

lots of ifs, ors, and maybes. KD had a case of tunnel vision. "i have to get my horse to the outside", "my horse is so smart he will know exactly what i am telling him to do", "i have to save my horse for the stretch." He lacked the split second decision making that would have assessed the race differently, let him run, don't worry about the outside, go wire to wire. poor horses mouth was so sore from all that yanking he didn't want to run into the bridal. maybe. then again he might have been drugged by leprechauns in the middle of the night.

[roscoe]

lots of ifs, ors, and maybes. KD had a case of tunnel vision. "i have to get my horse to the outside", "my horse is so smart he will know exactly what i am telling him to do", "i have to save my horse for the stretch." He lacked the split second decision making that would have assessed the race differently, let him run, don't worry about the outside, go wire to wire. poor horses mouth was so sore from all that yanking he didn't want to run into the bridal. maybe. then again he might have been drugged by leprechauns in the middle of the night.

[Travis Stone]

KB -- Thanks for reading the blog! I appreciate your input.

I absolutely do not think Coa sacrificed Tale of Ekati - that's the horse's style... to press the pace, and in doing so, he was able to also put the favorite in a precarious position, which is no more than good race riding.

The risk/reward of pushing up the rail is VERY slanted:

- Garcia Drifts In
- Big Brown hangs
- Speed duel develops

Regardless, Da' Tara was running big on Saturday, and if Big Brown hooks him, they're both toast.

Furthermore, the pan is very misleading as to how much space Big Brown actually had. When a horse is sideways, you can't really move forward too readily. And Da' Tara was moving quickly early, so Big Brown would have been facing a real fast first quarter which means he spits-it with four furlongs to go instead of three.

Big Brown going makes perfect sense if there is no other speed, but there was, so in my opinion, Desormeaux did the right thing.

[Afleet]

Kents "tunnel vision" is even more obvious in these photos then it was before. Interesting. He wasn't even looking straight ahead. He was looking to the outside in both of these last photos. He failed to see the opening that BB saw. If you can't clearly see Kent played a big part in the outcome of this race, then you are blind.

[Travis Stone]

Afleet --- An opening on the rail is a very scary spot. Notice how jocks always go outside more often than inside? Because the inside can close just as fast as it opened, the other riders know whats up. Not only that, it's dangerous and as I stated above, the risk/reward is simply not there. Speed duels are deadly, see Spectacular Bid.

[Eric]

We can all sit here and wonder what happened that day but the sad part is that BB will not be remembered by the general public as a good horse because of this run. He just had a bad day. He deserves better and hopefully can redeem himself in the Travers, cause this horse is truly a real good horse.

[KB]

Travis: Although I agree that putting the favorite in a precarious position is good racing, it is not good racing when you make a dangerous move. Had BB went down or even Tale of Ekati, it would have been a disaster. Granted that doesn't happen often, I have seen it happen with agressive riders and that is not good racing.

Kent had a hold on BB out of the gate. It has been said that something (perhaps a starter) spooked BB and caused him to move to the right sharply. After that BB wanted to dig in and run and Kent grabbed ahold of him and never let go. BB was rank and that is something Kent had not delt with in his previous races. Kent should have been able to adjust his stragedy and recognize BB's frame of mind. BB has plenty of tactical speed and could have went to the front or beside Da'Tara and stayed out of traffic trouble which, in my opinion, was detrimental to BB. I don't think a speed dual would have been an issue had Kent taken BB out of the traffic and let him get in stride and settle in. You just can't use that much energy (the energy he used to pull him up and shift him to the outside and then ask him to get back in the race) in a mile and half race with that kindof heat and then run 5 wide and expect any different outcome than the one we had.

I don't want to beat up on Kent to much, but in my opinion, just as Roscoe posted, Kent lacked the split decision making and the ability to change his stragedy based on the circumstances of the race and the behavior of his horse. I can't imagine the mental pressure he had been facing up until this moment but he seem to choke under pressure.

We all know the best horse doesn't always win. There are so many small circumstances that can change the outcome of the race. I have seen it a million times. The trip a horse gets makes all the difference in the world. That is the jockeys job and sometimes they don't do the right thing. BB is a magnificent horse and has thrilled us with his past 5 races. I sure hope we get to see him run again. Da'Tara ran a great race but never had any of the trouble BB faced in the race. He went to the lead and was never challenged. He was able to settle into stride on the rail and that is where he stayed. I do believe if BB would have went with Da'Tara we would have had a better race. The pace was soft and I don't think that would have changed. Just my opinion. Thanks for your feedback.

[Jimbo]

This is great, Travis. I have read Dutrow's criticisms of Kent, which were asinine, but haven't seen any journalists pile on. If you have please name them, so I can add them to my "never take seriously" list. Feel free to e-mail me directly if you don't want to call them out in public!

Anybody watching the race could see that Big Brown was not comfortable going into the first turn. Kent was just doing what any rider would do--trying to get him to settle into an easy stride.

I think people who don't watch a lot of racing often have a hard time accepting that sometimes horses just don't do what you want or expect. Even the best throw in clunkers. People search for answers when the obvious answer is that it's an animal, not a machine. We all have off days. The best pitchers get shelled every few weeks, the best quarterbacks have three-interception games, the best golfers miss the cut now and then, and so on.

In any case, I hope those that want to blame a Hall of Fame rider for the antics of an inexperienced colt under extreme pressure will learn a thing or two from Travis's spot-on analysis.

[jondarron]

There are many things that contributed to the off day for Big Brown. Missed training, jockey decisions, and cracked hoof. We can only speculate what about what happened. My hope is Big will be allowed to continue his quest and luckily might face Curlin (I'll be at Churchill this Saturday for the Stephen Foster) in the Classic. I have argued with my buddy for hours about the ride by Kent(I feel he is mostly to blame), but in the end we are all crying over spilled milk. We all wanted the Triple Crown in 08.

Let's hope that there is more in store for this great colt.

[Glen]

Excellent analysis, Travis. An experienced race caller such as you sees events like these Saturday's Belmont time-and-time again in races that you call. Ultimately, Big Brown was one-dimensional as he seems to need: clean break, no horse(s) outside him, and no horse(s) pressing him. Getting buried inside early and actually dealing with adversity appear to be factors in his eventual undoing.

Rick Dutrow criticizing Kent Desormeaux for his ride is totally classless. The Hall of Fame is not in Mr. Dutrow's future. True competitors win with class and humility and these same competitors lose with class and sportsmanship.