It's Post Time
SMOOTH AIR NOW NO. 1
In 1999, I developed a formula of key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from a historical standpoint in terms of class, stamina, style and precedence.
That was the genesis of my 10 key Kentucky Derby factors. When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the 10 categories, he or she gets a strike.
Here are how many strikes each Kentucky Derby winner has had since 1999:
1999 Charismatic (1 strike)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes)
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (1 strike)
2007 Smart Sense (1 strike)
Based on what has happened in the last nine years, I’d say there is roughly a 78 percent chance the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner will have zero strikes or one strike.
Last year, by focusing on horses with zero strikes or one strike, one could have whittled the field of 20 down to five possibilities:
ZERO STRIKES
Cowtown Cat
Scat Daddy
ONE STRIKE
Hard Spun
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Street Sense
Street Sense won. Hard Spun finished second.
The Louisville Courier-Journal currently identifies 33 horses under consideration for the May 3 Kentucky Derby. Four of them -- Salute the Sarge, Tomcito, Atoned and Racecar Rhapsody -- are scheduled to run in this Saturday’s Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Here are how the remaining 29 fare in terms of strikes:
ZERO STRIKES
Adriano
Hey Byrn
Smooth Air
Z Fortune
ONE STRIKE
Big Truck
Colonel John
Cool Coal Man
Cowboy Cal
Eight Belles
Halo Najib
Pyro
Tale of Ekati
Visionaire
War Pass
Z Humor
Based on the last nine years, I’d say there is about a 22 percent chance the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner will have two strikes. These 2008 Kentucky Derby candidates are in that boat:
TWO STRIKES
Big Brown
Bob Black Jack*
Court Vision
Gayego
Golden Spikes
Monba
*Bob Black Jack will get an additional strike if he adds blinkers for the Kentucky Derby, which appears likely at this point after he worked four furlongs with blinkers Monday at Santa Anita in :48 for trainer James Kasparoff. Bob Black Jack worked in company with the Kasparoff-trained 3-year-old maiden Itsnotjustagame, who was timed in :48 2/5.
I toss out any 2008 Kentucky Derby candidate with three or more strikes. They are:
THREE STRIKES
Anak Nakal
Denis of Cork
El Gato Malo
My Pal Charlie
Recapturetheglory
Tres Borrachos
FOUR STRIKES
Kentucky Bear
Stevil
Here are my 10 key Kentucky Derby factors:
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk and Sunny’s Halo have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
Recapturetheglory gets a strike.
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba did finish first in the Blue Grass only to be disqualified and placed third.)
Bob Black Jack, Golden Spikes, Halo Najib, Kentucky Bear, My Pal Charlie, Stevil and Tres Borrachos each get a strike.
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 43 of the last 45 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam, Carry Back, Cannonade, Gato Del Sol, Unbridled and Sea Hero, with Canonero II unknown.)
Anak Nakal, Court Vision, Denis of Cork, El Gato Malo, Kentucky Bear, Stevil, Tres Borrachos and Z Humor each get a strike.
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse did not get passed in the final furlong in either of his or her last two races.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way, Cannonade, Foolish Pleasure, Ferdinand and Silver Charm, with Canonero II unknown.)
Bob Black Jack, Cool Coal Man, Cowboy Cal, Gayego, Golden Spikes, My Pal Charlie, Recapturetheglory and War Pass each get a strike.
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King, Sea Hero, Charismatic and Giacomo.)
Big Truck, Eight Belles, Pyro and Visionaire each get a strike. For all four, it is their only strike. Anak Nakal, Denis of Cork, My Pal Charlie and Stevil also each get a strike.
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Barbaro in 2006 have been the only exceptions. They each had made five starts before the Derby.)
Big Brown, Denis of Cork, El Gato Malo, Monba, Gayego and Kentucky Bear each get a strike.
7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in any of his or her races at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Exceptions: Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers at 3 before winning the Derby. Strike the Gold did have blinkers removed in his second start at 3.)
As mentioned, Bob Black Jack will get a strike in this category if he does add blinkers in the Kentucky Derby. Anak Nakal and Stevil each get a strike.
8. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old.)
Kentucky Bear gets a strike.
9. THE NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exception: Funny Cide is the only gelding to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
El Gato Malo and Tres Borrachos each get a strike.
10. THE SUFFICIENT EXPERIENCE AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has made at least three starts at 3 before the Derby.) (Exceptions: Of the last 55 horses to run in the Derby with fewer than three preps, 53 have failed. The only exceptions since Jet Pilot in 1947 were Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Street Sense in 2007.)
Big Brown, Colonel John, Court Vision, Monba, Recapturetheglory and Tale of Ekati each get a strike.
Pyro finished 10th in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last Saturday. For me, this is a big concern. Monba and Cowboy Cal, who both are trained by Todd Pletcher, finished first and second, respectively.
Has a horse ever finished 10th in his or her final prep and then won the Kentucky Derby? I can’t find one. Going back to 1955, the worst final prep finish by a Kentucky Derby winner was Iron Liege’s fifth in the 1957 Derby Trial five days before the Run for the Roses.
Federal Hill won the one-mile Derby Trial that year, with Calumet Farm’s Gen. Duke second. Iron Liege also raced for Calumet.
Both Gen. Duke and Iron Liege were entered in the Kentucky Derby. Gen. Duke was considered the stronger of the two Calumet colts. However, Gen. Duke was withdrawn the day of the race due to a bruised foot.
After the 1957 Kentucky Derby, “Iron Liege, carrying on for the injured Gen. Duke, stood in the winner’s circle dripping sweat and roses gloriously,” Charles Hatton wrote in the Daily Racing Form.
But Iron Liege was rather fortunate to win the Kentucky Derby. That’s the Derby known for Bill Shoemaker, riding Ralph Lowe’s Gallant Man, misjudging the finish. Gallant Man lost by a nose.
With 70 yards to go, “Shoemaker appeared to misjudge the finish and raised up in his stirrups for one stride, then sat down to ride some more,” Hatton wrote.
Years ago I asked Shoemaker about that race.
“The night before, Mr. Lowe told me his dream about a rider misjudging the finish in the Kentucky Derby,” Shoemaker said. “He just passed it off as nothing, but then it happened the next day. I just misjudged the finish line. The finish line at Churchill Downs is about a sixteenth of a mile further toward the first turn than any other racetrack in the country. And I didn’t ride any other races that day. I always liked to ride two or three races before a big race in order to get a feel for the track. But I couldn’t that day because I didn’t get the mount on Gallant Man until the last minute.”
One of the stewards contacted Shoemaker after the race to ask him what had happened. Shoemaker admitted that he had simply misjudged the finish line. He received a 15-day suspension.
Lowe evidently felt guilty for believing he had put the notion of misjudging the finish in Shoemaker’s head. The owner sent Shoemaker a brand new Chrysler after the Kentucky Derby.
Gallant Man did not run in the Preakness Stakes. Bold Ruler, who had finished fourth in the Derby, won the Preakness by two lengths, with Iron Liege second. Gallant Man then won the Belmont Stakes by eight lengths under Shoemaker in 2:26 3/5, setting a track record that stood until the amazing 31-length victory accomplished in 2:24 by Secretariat (a son of Bold Ruler) in 1973.
Here is the final prep finish by each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1955 (which is as far back as I have past performances for the race):
2007 Street Sense (second)
2006 Barbaro (first)
2005 Giacomo (fourth)
2004 Smarty Jones (first)
2003 Funny Cide (second)
2002 War Emblem (first)
2001 Monarchos (second)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (first)
1999 Charismatic (first)
1998 Real Quiet (second)
1997 Silver Charm (second)
1996 Grindstone (second)
1995 Thunder Gulch (fourth)
1994 Go for Gin (second)
1993 Sea Hero (fourth)
1992 Lil E. Tee (second)
1991 Strike the Gold (first)
1990 Unbridled (third)
1989 Sunday Silence (first)
1988 Winning Colors (first)
1987 Alysheba (first)
1986 Ferdinand (third)
1985 Spend a Buck (first)
1984 Swale (second)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (first)
1982 Gato del Sol (second)
1981 Pleasant Colony (first)
1980 Genuine Risk (third)
1979 Spectacular Bid (first)
1978 Affirmed (first)
1977 Seattle Slew (first)
1976 Bold Forbes (first)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (first)
1974 Cannonade (first)
1973 Secretariat (third)
1972 Riva Ridge (first)
1971 Canonero II (third)
1970 Dust Commander (first)
1969 Majestic Prince (first)
1968 Forward Pass (first)
1967 Proud Clarion (second)
1966 Kauai King (first)
1965 Lucky Debonair (first)
1964 Northern Dancer (first)
1963 Chateaugay (first)
1962 Decidedly (second)
1961 Carry Back (second)
1960 Venetian Way (second)
1959 Tomy Lee (first)
1958 Tim Tam (first)
1957 Iron Liege (fifth)
1956 Needles (first)
1955 Swaps (first)
Pyro had been No. 1 on my weekly Kentucky Derby Top 10 list ever since his explosive victory in the Risen Star Stakes for trainer Steve Asmussen at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 9.
But what should I do now after Pyro’s clunker as the even-money favorite in the Blue Grass? Can I ignore it because it was on Polytrack?
Daily Racing Form’s Steven Crist points out that the Blue Grass was the 13th time that an American Grade I race has been run on Polytrack. No favorite has won those 13 races.
One of those 13 races was the 2007 Blue Grass. Street Sense lost as the 11-10 favorite, then rebounded to win the Kentucky Derby.
But Street Sense finished second in the Blue Grass, losing by only a nose. It is quite different for Pyro to finish 10th and lose by 11 1/2 lengths while earning a lowly 73 Beyer Speed Figure.
“I’m pretty confident it was simply the surface,” Asmussen is quoted as saying in a New York Times story by Bill Finley. “The horse came out of it in good shape. Watching the race, he wasn’t going anywhere at any point. He simply wasn’t himself from the first step.”
For me, part of Pyro’s Kentucky Derby appeal is he will have three preps. But how much did he get out of that final prep since it was such a poor performance? Asmussen now feels he needs to train Pyro harder up to the Kentucky Derby. For instance, the colt’s next workout will be in company instead of solo.
“I’m definitely worried that he didn’t do enough in the Blue Grass,” Asmussen said. “I would have worked him by himself. Now, his next work will definitely be in company. I just can’t look at the Blue Grass as a hard race.”
Since Pyro has only one strike, it’s not as if I’m completely off him, especially with the Polytrack wrinkle. But I can’t keep him No. 1 off such a debacle, either.
Colonel John had an excellent workout Monday at Santa Anita, stepping four furlongs in :47 2/5. His trainer, Eoin Harty, characterized it as “super.” For Colonel John to emerge from the Santa Anita Derby so well that he was that sharp in his first workout after the race would appear to bode well that he is going to prove a tough customer on the first Saturday in May.
If Colonel John had three preps, I would love him to win the Kentucky Derby. At least both of his races this year have been at 1 1/8 miles. If a horse is going to have only two preps before the Kentucky Derby, a pair of 1 1/8-mile races would be about the best way to do it.
I don’t think there is any question that Big Brown will be the Kentucky Derby favorite, particularly after Pyro flopped last Saturday. But I like Colonel John to win the roses much more than the inexperienced Big Brown, who worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Palm Meadows in Florida last Saturday morning for trainer Rick Dutrow.
Meanwhile, Smooth Air and Z Fortune intrigue me. They both have a lot going for them. They both have zero strikes. And they both will be a big price in the wagering.
If Big Brown does not win because of his lack of experience or some other reason, that opens the door for the possibility of someone like the more experienced Smooth Air. I really liked the move Smooth Air made on the far turn in the Florida Derby. That’s the kind of move we often see on the far turn in the Kentucky Derby by the winner.
Smooth Air worked a mile last Sunday in 1:41 at Calder for trainer Bennie Stutts.
I’m a bit concerned that Smooth Air has never earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. But two Kentucky Derby winners, Sea Hero and Giacomo, did not have a triple-digit Beyer before they won the roses. So it can be done.
Steve Byk, host of “At the Races” on Sirius Satellite Radio Channel 126, points out that Smooth Air does stack up well against the other 2008 Kentucky Derby candidates in terms of Beyer Speed Figures of 90 or higher. The leaders with Beyers of 90 or higher are:
War Pass (five)
Bob Black Jack (four)
Pyro (four)
Smooth Air (four)
Eight Belles (four)
As much as I like Colonel John, Smooth Air actually has better Beyer Speed Figures. Smooth Air’s four best Beyers are 98, 95, 92 and 91. Colonel John’s four best figures are 95, 93, 86 and 85.
Colonel John is getting respect -- and rightfully so -- after winning an important prep, the Santa Anita Derby. If Big Brown had not run in the Florida Derby, Smooth Air would be heading to Louisville with considerably more respect as the winner of an important prep himself, the Florida Derby. Hypothetically, without Big Brown in the field, Smooth Air would have won the Florida Derby by 7 1/2 lengths.
Big Brown leads all 2008 Kentucky Derby candidates in the 2008 Beyer Speed Figure department with his 106 in the Florida Derby, a figure that’s all the more impressive considering his horrible post position. He also recorded a 104 Beyer in an off-the-turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park on March 5.
But big Beyers certainly do not guarantee a Kentucky Derby victory. A prime example of that is Bellamy Road, who earned a 120 in the 2005 Wood Memorial. Giacomo won the roses that year while recording a 100 Beyer, while Bellamy Road earned a 90 Beyer and ended up seventh.
The Florida Derby performances by both Big Brown and Smooth Air look even somewhat better now after Hey Byrn won Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at 1 3/16 miles last Saturday. Hey Byrn had finished fourth in the Florida Derby, behind Big Brown, Smooth Air and Tomcito.
Z Fortune, like Pyro an Asmussen trainee, ran a strong second in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last Saturday despite a wide trip.
Lil E. Tee and Grindstone went on to win the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the Arkansas Derby.
Garrett Gomez told me how much he thinks of Z Fortune after finishing second aboard him in the Risen Star earlier this year. Z Fortune took the lead in the stretch in the Risen Star before finishing second to Pyro.
Gomez told me that he thought Z Fortune had relaxed once he made the lead in the stretch that day. But the rider emphasized that he believes Z Fortune has a lot of ability.
After the Risen Star, Z Fortune finished fifth under Gomez as the 7-10 favorite in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 15. But then the colt rebounded to acquit himself well in the Arkansas Derby with Robby Albarado in the saddle.
I say watch out for both Smooth Air and Z Fortune. I’m putting them first and second on my latest Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. Here is this week’s list:
1. Smooth Air
2. Z Fortune
3. Colonel John
4. Pyro
5. Big Brown
6. Adriano
7. Visionaire
8. Hey Byrn
9. Tale of Ekati
10. War Pass
END